Analysis of the Live Cattle Futures Market
The first week of March was marked by intense instability in the market, exacerbated by the temporary suspension of three Brazilian slaughterhouses authorized to export to China. However, even in the face of this obstacle, Brazilian beef exports took off in early March, showing a daily shipment rate more than twice as high as that recorded in March 2024.
In addition to the limited supply of animals and a positive outlook for the year 2025, preliminary export figures gave a strong boost to live cattle futures prices on the Stock Exchange (B3), especially for contracts maturing in May 2024, as the data shows.
It is important to note that, despite price fluctuations, a characteristic already addressed by Farmnews, the leadership of Individual Investors in the balance of short positions in March increases the risk of even greater pressure from Legal Entity investors, who operate in the opposite direction and have greater financial capacity and liquidity. Risk management is crucial in this market, which, despite the inherent instability of the B3, presents a favorable scenario for increases due to long-term fundamentals. In fact, long-term contracts, maturing from the second half of 2025, already reflect this recovery trend.
It is worth mentioning that Brazilian exports of *in natura* beef totaled 190.46 thousand tons in February 2025, a volume 6.3% higher than the previous record, of 2024 (179.12 thousand tons), and significantly above the volumes recorded in the same period of previous years.
Although the foreign market is at record levels, Brazilian domestic consumption continues at a slower pace in early 2025. The São Paulo retail market is facing difficulties with low demand for beef, which has put pressure on prices in early March.
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