Introducción
Expectations of an increase in beef sales driven by the Carnival holiday did not materialize in the state of São Paulo, where the sales pace remained slow, albeit slightly higher than in previous weeks. In parallel, the market was surprised by the news of the temporary suspension of Brazilian beef imports by China, adding an element of attention to the sector's scenario.
Wholesale Price Dynamics
In the wholesale market, mixed behavior was observed in beef prices. The married carcass of ox capon registered an increase of 2.4%, being quoted at R$21.10/kg, contrasting with the carcass of whole ox, which remained stable at R$18.75/kg. The married cow carcass also remained stable at R$18.10/kg, while the heifer carcass showed a slight increase of 0.8%, being traded at R$19.25/kg. Regarding boneless cuts, there was a general downward trend in prices, except for sirloin cap, which remained stable. This scenario resulted in an average decrease of 0.9% in boneless cut prices, with reductions of 0.9% in hindquarter cuts and 0.6% in forequarter cuts.
Retail Price Behavior
In retail, the state of São Paulo recorded a new drop in beef prices, with a decrease of 0.4%, where only a small portion of cuts showed a price increase. In Paraná, the retraction was 0.3%, with an even more limited number of cuts showing appreciation. In contrast, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro presented an upward movement in prices, both with 0.3%. In Minas Gerais, picanha stood out with an increase of 5.1%, while in Rio de Janeiro, silverside led the increases with 2.4%.
Suspension of Chinese Imports and Potential Impact
China, through the General Administration of Customs (GACC), announced the suspension of beef imports from three Brazilian meatpacking plants, justifying the measure with “non-conformities” in product quality. It is important to note that this restriction also affected meatpacking plants in other South American and Asian countries. Despite the suspension, market analysts assess that the impact on bilateral trade between Brazil and China should be limited. Brazil remains the main supplier of beef to China, and the export volume of the three suspended plants represents a small fraction of the total exported annually, which reached 1 million tons in 2024. Suspension episodes like this have occurred previously, and the affected meatpacking plants are already in contact with the competent authorities to seek a quick solution.
Movements in the Futures Market and Farmnews Updates
In the live cattle futures market, an increase in “sold” positions by Individual Investors is observed, indicating an expectation of a drop in future prices. In the opposite direction, Financial Legal Entity investors increased their “bought” positions, betting on appreciation. Farmnews updated the data referring to the price variation of live cattle, the dollar, and the IGP-M inflation indicator, covering the period between the beginning of 2020 and February 2025. Additionally, Farmnews launched a new community, aiming to offer a more private and organized environment for interaction between its readers.
Próximos pasos
In summary, the beef market in the Carnival period presented sales below expectations in São Paulo and Paraná, while Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro registered a slight increase. The wholesale market showed price variations between cuts, and the temporary suspension of Chinese imports, although relevant, should not cause a major impact on the overall trade scenario. The futures market demonstrates divergences in investor expectations, and Farmnews continues to update information and offer new tools for its users.
