To inform about the reduction of Brazilian soybean exports in January 2024 and its causal factors.
The beginning of 2024 saw a decrease in the pace of Brazilian soy complex exports. Trading slowed down due to a series of factors, such as the delay in the harvest in Brazil and the projections for the harvest in Argentina, which have influenced the behavior of the international market.
While in January of the previous year soybean grain exports reached almost 3 million tons, in January 2024 this number plummeted to approximately 1 million tons, representing a two-thirds reduction in volume. Producers are choosing to retain their grains, hoping for an increase in prices before making sales.
Soybean meal exports had a less drastic decrease, going from 1.8 million tons to 1.7 million tons. The smaller drop, when compared to the grain, is due to the need for uninterrupted operation of the processing industries. To maintain financial health, these factories need to keep their production capacity in operation, which makes it difficult to store the meal compared to the grain. Despite the decrease, the meal continues to be traded at a constant pace, although lower than expected.
Soybean oil, in turn, did not register large fluctuations in January 2024, maintaining exports around 70,000 to 80,000 tons. However, in relation to the peak period during the conflict in Ukraine (2022/2023), there was a notable drop. The demand for alternatives to coal in Europe boosted exported volumes at that time, but with the normalization of demand, exports adjusted to a lower level.
The perspective is that Brazilian producers are postponing sales, awaiting a recovery in prices. The uncertainty of the Argentine harvest and the impacts of the drought on the Brazilian harvest contribute to this stance. Additionally, the reduction in the value per ton in the international market, with a drop of approximately $5 per ton compared to the previous year, reinforces the decision of producers to keep soybeans stored, waiting for more favorable market conditions.
The retraction in soy complex exports in January reflects a moment of caution and expectation in the market. Brazilian producers, faced with a scenario of climatic uncertainties and price fluctuations, are adopting a conservative stance, waiting for better opportunities to market their production.
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