Analysis of food inflation in January 2025, based on IPCA data released by the IBGE.
The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for January revealed a significant increase in food prices, mainly driven by the lower availability of products such as tomatoes and carrots. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) attributes this rise to the reduced supply of these items in the market.
The food and beverage group registered an increase of 0.96% in January, contributing 0.21 percentage points to the total IPCA. Despite representing a slowdown compared to December (1.18%), food inflation continues to be a crucial point for the government, which is seeking measures to reduce the cost of living.
Among the items surveyed, tubers, roots, and legumes led the increase (8.19%), followed by beverages and infusions (2.96%), fish (1.71%), and poultry and eggs (1.69%). The IBGE found that 71% of the analyzed food sub-items had a price increase. Ground coffee, tomatoes, and carrots were the ones that most impacted the index, due to production issues, explained by the classic law of supply and demand: fewer products available with the same demand result in higher prices.
According to Fernando Gonçalves, the research manager, carrot production, concentrated in Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Goiás, was affected, reducing the supply. In the case of tomatoes, intense rains damaged the quality and volume of production. In addition, the off-season period and the decision of some producers not to reinvest in crops that suffered losses in the past also contribute to the lower availability of these foods.
The increase in coffee, another item that pressured inflation, is expected to persist, influenced both by climate problems and by the increase in global demand. On the other hand, the drop in the price of meat (0.36% in January, compared to 5.26% in December) is attributed to the improvement of pastures with the arrival of the rains. The government is counting on the fall of the dollar and the record harvest forecast for 2025 to contain food inflation.
Food inflation in January reflects a complex scenario, influenced by climatic factors, producers' decisions, and the dynamics of supply and demand. Although there are prospects for improvement with the 2025 harvest, the rise in some items, such as coffee, is still a concern. The government is seeking alternatives, such as reducing import tariffs, to mitigate the impact on consumers' pockets.
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