Soybean Production and Trade Outlook
The USDA's February report on the soybean market shows adjustments in global production forecasts and ending stocks. While Brazil's production estimates remain unchanged, there are changes in other key areas, including Argentina and global ending stocks.
The world soybean production forecast for 2024/25 was revised down to 420.76 million tons, a decrease from the 424.26 million tons projected in January. The estimate for the 2023/24 season remains unchanged at 394.97 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2024/25 also saw a reduction, now pegged at 124.34 million tons, down from 128.4 million and below the market expectation of 128.5 million. For 2023/24, ending stocks are projected at 112.5 million tons.
The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2023/24 at 153 million tons, and the estimate for 2024/25 remains at 169 million tons. Market analysts had anticipated a potential increase to 170 million tons for the current season. Argentina's 2023/24 crop projection was kept at 48.21 million tons. However, the forecast for 2024/25 was reduced to 49 million tons, down from the previous 52 million, falling short of the 50.6 million tons predicted by the market.
Chinese soybean imports for 2023/24 were maintained at 112 million tons. The forecast for the next season remains at 109 million tons, consistent with the previous month's report. The February USDA report includes the United States numbers.
The soybean production forecast for 2024/25 is estimated at 4.366 billion bushels (118.82 million tons), with a yield projection of 50.7 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for 2024/25 were estimated at 380 million bushels (10.34 million tons), slightly below the expectation, which was 382 million bushels (10.39 million tons). The USDA maintained the crushing and export estimates, which are 2.410 billion bushels and 1.825 billion bushels, respectively.
The USDA's February report indicates a slightly tighter global soybean supply outlook than previously anticipated, mainly due to reduced production forecasts outside of Brazil. While Brazilian production remains a key factor, adjustments in other regions and stable import projections from China will continue to influence the global soybean market.
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