Soybean Production and Trade Outlook
The USDA's February report on the soybean market presented few surprises for Brazil, keeping the country's production estimates unchanged. However, the report included adjustments to global production, ending stocks, and the Argentinian crop forecast, reflecting the evolving dynamics of the market.
The USDA's global soybean production projection for 2024/25 was reduced to 420.76 million tons, down from 424.26 million tons in January. The estimate for 2023/24 remains at 394.97 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2024/25 were also reduced, now pegged at 124.34 million tons, down from 128.4 million and below the market expectation of 128.5 million. Ending stocks for 2023/24 are estimated at 112.5 million tons.
The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production at 153 million tons, and the estimate for 2024/25 was confirmed at 169 million tons. This contrasted with the market expectation of a slight increase to 170 million tons for the current crop. Argentina's 2023/24 crop projection was kept stable at 48.21 million tons. However, the forecast for 2024/25 was reduced to 49 million tons, down from the previous 52 million, falling short of the market expectation of 50.6 million tons.
Chinese soybean imports remained unchanged at 112 million tons for 2023/24. The forecast for the next season also remains stable at 109 million tons, consistent with the previous month's report. The USDA report also provided updates on the US soybean situation, largely mirroring January's projections. Soybean production for the 2024/25 crop is projected at 4.366 billion bushels (118.82 million tons), with an expected yield of 50.7 bushels per acre.
US ending stocks for 2024/25 were projected at 380 million bushels (10.34 million tons), slightly below the market expectation of 382 million bushels (10.39 million tons). The USDA left its crush and export estimates unchanged, remaining at 2.410 billion bushels and 1.825 billion bushels, respectively.
While the USDA's February report kept Brazil's soybean production stable, the downward adjustments to global and Argentinian production, coupled with the steady Chinese import numbers, highlight the ongoing adjustments and uncertainties in the global soybean market.
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