Analysis of the Live Cattle Futures Market
The first week of March was marked by intense instability in the market, exacerbated by the temporary suspension of three Brazilian slaughterhouses authorized to export to China. However, even in the face of this obstacle, Brazilian beef exports took off at the beginning of March, presenting a daily shipment rate more than twice as high as that recorded in March 2024.
In addition to the limited supply of animals and a positive outlook for the year 2025, preliminary export figures gave a strong boost to future live cattle prices on the Stock Exchange (B3), especially for contracts expiring in May 2024, as the data show.
It is important to highlight that, despite the price fluctuation, a characteristic already addressed by Farmnews, the leadership of Individual investors in the balance of sold positions in March increases the risk of even greater pressure from Legal Entity investors, who operate in the opposite direction and have greater financial capacity and liquidity. Risk management is crucial in this market, which, despite the instability inherent to B3, presents a scenario favorable to highs due to long-term fundamentals. Including, long-term contracts, expiring from the second half of 2025 onwards, already reflect this recovery trend.
It is relevant to mention that Brazilian *in natura* beef exports totaled 190.46 thousand tons in February 2025, a volume 6.3% higher than the previous record, from 2024 (179.12 thousand tons), and significantly above the volumes recorded in the same period of previous years.
Although the external market is at record levels, Brazilian domestic consumption continues at a slower pace in early 2025. Retail in São Paulo faces difficulties with low demand for beef, which has put pressure on prices in early March.
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