Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Food Import Tax Exemption as an Anti-Inflationary Tool in 2025
In 2025, the federal government implemented the exemption of import tax for certain foods, justifying the action as a crucial strategy to mitigate inflation. However, the measure generated a debate among experts, who question whether the initiative will bring concrete economic benefits or if it will constitute just a political propaganda move.
Renowned economists, such as Sérgio Vale, from MB Associados, argue that the tax exemption for foods already produced in abundance in Brazil, such as coffee and meat, has a limited practical impact on supply and prices. For Vale, the measure is more akin to a 'marketing' action than an economic policy with real impact. The proposal to tax beef exports, announced simultaneously, reinforces the perception that the government seeks to signal an incisive action against inflation, even if the measures adopted do not address the underlying causes of the problem.
The analysis of experts such as Celso Ming converges on the criticism that the federal government neglects to address the primary causes of inflation, both for food and services. Although the import tax exemption may generate momentary relief in the prices of some products, it does not solve the structural issues that drive inflation in the long term. This punctual approach, therefore, is questioned as to its ability to generate sustainable results.
Economists such as Juliana Inhasz, from Insper, and José Carlos Hausknecht, from MB Agro, corroborate the view that the import tax exemption is a palliative measure, with limited effects in the short term. Such actions do not address the underlying problems, such as the high exchange rate and inflationary pressures arising from supply problems, both in the domestic and external markets. Thus, the sustainability of the measure and its effective impact on inflation are considered low.
José Ronaldo Souza Júnior, economist and former director of Ipea, points to the need for more effective measures to control food inflation, such as rigorous control of public spending. For Souza Júnior, containing public spending would have a greater impact on reducing inflation, by containing the growth of demand and appreciating the national currency. This perspective suggests that fiscal policy has a more decisive role in combating inflation than isolated actions on import taxes.
The analysis of the federal government's agenda reveals a possible prioritization of communication to the detriment of concrete economic actions, with more meetings with the Communication Secretariat than with key ministries in the economic area. This finding reinforces the interpretation that the political narrative may be being prioritized over the effectiveness of anti-inflationary measures. For the agricultural sector, the priority lies in structural measures that promote a stable and predictable economic environment, and not in actions with media appeal with limited practical impact. In short, the exemption of food import tax seems to fit more into a communication strategy than an effective solution to the problem of inflation.
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